Tag Archives: precious metals

Silver-screen playbook

IN 1983 William Goldman, a screenwriter, coined the famous saying that in Hollywood, “Nobody knows anything” when it comes to predicting which films will succeed at the box office. To find out how true that remains, we have analysed the performance of more than 2,000 films with a budget of more than $10m, released in America and Canada since 1995, to see which factors help make a movie a hit.

Crunching information from The Numbers, a website that collects data on film releases, and Rotten Tomatoes, an aggregator of critics’ and punters’ reviews, we found that the strongest predictor of absolute box-office receipts is a film’s budget. Even if it got no boost from its cast, from favourable reviews or other factors, a movie would generate an average of 80 cents at American and Canadian cinemas for every dollar a studio promises to spend on it. A film’s budget is announced while it is in production, to create a buzz and signal its quality—though in practice its true cost may vary from the announced figure.

The more a studio commits to producing a film, the more it is likely to spend on advertising it. The budget also helps…Continue reading

First published here: http://www.economist.com/news/business/21693594-how-make-hit-film-silver-screen-playbook?fsrc=rss


“Buy Gold” As “Insurance Is Warranted” – Deutsche Bank

“Buy Gold” As “Insurance Is Warranted” – Deutsche Bank

Buy gold as “insurance is warranted”, Deutsche Bank have advised in a note issued today.

The embattled German bank has said that rising economic risks and market turmoil mean investors should buy gold for insurance.


Market Performance – 2016 YTD via Finviz.com 

“There are rising stresses in the global financial system; in particular the rising risk of a U.S. corporate default cycle and the risk of a sharp one-off renminbi devaluation due to the sharp increase in China’s capital outflows,” Deutsche Bank added.” Buying some gold as ‘insurance’ is warranted,” as reported by CNBC.


LBMA Gold Prices
26 Feb: USD 1,231.00, EUR 1117.58 and GBP 878.87 per ounce
25 Feb: USD 1,235.40, EUR 1,121.41 and GBP 887.10 per ounce
24 Feb: USD 1,232.25, EUR 1,122.33 and GBP 885.52 per ounce
23 Feb: USD 1,218.75, EUR 1,106.62 and GBP 863.43 per ounce 
22 Feb: USD 1,203.65, EUR 1,088.17 and GBP 849.21 per ounce

After initial falls again on Sunday night, Monday morning, gold has eked out slight gains this week in dollar and euro terms and has seen more strong gains in sterling terms as sterling continues to weaken on BREXIT and UK economy concerns.

Silver is lower in dollars and euros but has made small gains in sterling terms ($15.12/oz, €13.74, £10.80).

Gold and Silver News and Commentary
Gold moves revive memories of 1990s currency crisis – CNBC
Gold rises as bullish technicals, fund flows counter equity gains – Reuters
Asian Stocks Jump With Metals as Zhou Sees Easing Room – Bloomberg
Gold Tops Silver by Most Since 2008 as Investors Fret on Growth – Bloomberg
Jobless Claims in U.S. Rise in Holiday Week From Three-Month Low – Bloomberg

Gold Bulls Predict $US2,000-Plus Prices – ABC
Gold the ‘Superhero’ May Shoot Up to $1,400: Top Forecaster – Bloomberg
Aggressive Silver Capping Continues – Silver Seek
Deliverable Silver Stocks At The COMEX Reach Historic Low – Silver Seek
Why Some Think Australia’s Housing Market Is Due for a 2008 Moment – Bloomberg

Click here


First published here: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-02-26/%E2%80%9Cbuy-gold%E2%80%9D-%E2%80%9Cinsurance-warranted%E2%80%9D-%E2%80%93-deutsche-bank

Silver Prices: Last Time This Happened, Silver Prices Soared 800%

Here’s Why Silver Prices Could Soar 800%
This is a message to silver investors: there’s something interesting happening with silver prices and it shouldn’t be ignored. It suggests the precious metal could soar well over 800%.

Before jumping to any conclusion, please look at the chart below and pay close attention to the blue line and the circled areas..

The post Silver Prices: Last Time This Happened, Silver Prices Soared 800% appeared first on Profit Confidential.

First published here: http://www.profitconfidential.com/silver/silver-prices-last-time-this-happened-silver-prices-soared-800-percent/

Silver Buy Signal – 2016

The gold to silver ratio has been used for years to indicate buy and sell zones in both gold and silver. Why?

  • At BOTTOMS in both gold and silver, based on 40 years of history, silver prices have fallen farther and faster than gold. Hence the gold/silver ratio reaches a relative high.
  • At tops in both gold and silver the ratio is often low since silver rises more rapidly than gold. As Jim Sinclair says, “silver is gold on steroids.”

Examine the following graph of the gold to silver ratio (monthly data) for the past 40 years. I have circled the six most extreme highs in the ratio with green ovals.

B-gold silver ratio-Updated

At 5 of 6 extremes in the ratio silver was at or near a long term bottom. The one minor exception was when silver bottomed in November of 2001 at $4.01 and the ratio peaked later in May 2003. Otherwise the ratio was quite accurate at indicating major silver lows.

For more confirmation, assume a silver buy signal occurs when an extreme in the gold to silver ratio has been reached, and the weekly silver price closes above its 5 week moving average.

Monthly Ratio Extremes Silver (weekly) closes above

(green ovals above) 5 week MA

June 1982 July 2, 1982

August 1986 September 5, 1986

February 1991 March 8, 1991

May 2003 April 11, 2003

November 2008 November 28, 2008

February 2016 January 29, 2016

The six major highs in the gold to silver ratio are marked above with green ovals, and also marked below on the log scale chart of COMEX silver. Note that 5 of 6 price lows were accurately indicated by the ratio highs, with the November 2001 price low being a minor exception.

B-Silver Monthly


Using the above simple analysis, silver hit a multi-year low in December 2015 and has confirmed that low by closing above its 5 week moving average AND registering a gold to silver ratio slightly above 80, the highest in about 20 years and the most extreme peak since the 2008 crash lows in gold and silver prices.

Silver hit a low on December 14, 2015 at $13.61. The price on Feb. 24, as this is written, is $15.43, nearly $2 higher. Of course the paper silver market will flop around as it is managed by High Frequency Trading but the ratio provides more evidence that a silver bottom occurred about two months ago.

Note the logarithmic lines on the silver price chart. The lines are somewhat arbitrary but roughly represent a lower bound, a middle trend-line, and an upper blow-off line. The middle trend-line passes through $25 in 2016 and the red line shows that $50 silver is one good rally away. We will see $50 silver, perhaps in 2017.

Stacking silver makes sense – silver thrives and paper dies.

BOOK-who-killed-dr-silver-cartwheelFor more information on silver demonetization and possible future prices for silver, read my novel “Who Killed Doctor Silver Cartwheel?”

Gary Christenson
The Deviant Investor

First published here: http://goldsilverworlds.com/gold-silver-experts/silver-buy-signal-2016/

Silver Prices: This Could Send Silver Prices Soaring 32%

One Reason to Be Bullish on Silver Prices
So far, 2016 has been good for silver prices. The gray precious metal is up more than 10%, while other assets are generating losses. Don’t be shocked if there are more gains ahead.

This maybe a bold claim—and there are not many who are saying this—but I say silver prices are severely undervalued. The basic fundamentals of supply and supply are screaming that much higher prices could be ahead.

I have talked about the demand for the gray precious metal in these pages before. (You can read more here: “.

The post Silver Prices: This Could Send Silver Prices Soaring 32% appeared first on Profit Confidential.

First published here: http://www.profitconfidential.com/gold-investments/silver-gold-investments/silver-prices-this-could-send-silver-prices-soaring-32/

Marc Faber: This Is Why Everyone Needs to Own Gold and Silver

In a negative interest rate environment, zero-yielding gold and silver become a high-yield asset, according to perma-bear investor Marc Faber.

“Leave a million dollars with a bank, and in a year, you get only something like $990,000 back,” Marc Faber, publisher of The Gloom, Boom & Doom Report, told Bloomberg. “I would rather want to own some solid currency, in other words gold.” (Source: “Gold Bulls Feast as More Central Banks Drive Rates.

The post Marc Faber: This Is Why Everyone Needs to Own Gold and Silver appeared first on Profit Confidential.

First published here: http://www.profitconfidential.com/gold/marc-faber-this-is-why-everyone-needs-to-own-gold-and-silver/

2012-2015 U.S. Gold Supply Deficit: A LOT



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2012-2015 U.S. Gold Supply Deficit: A LOT

Posted with permission and written by Steve St. Angelo, SRSrocco Report (CLICK FOR ORIGINAL)




The U.S. suffered another sizable gold supply deficit in 2015. Matter a fact, the deficit was 50% larger than in 2014. In 2015, total U.S.gold demand was 118 metric tons (mt) higher than total supply versus 77 mt in 2014.

According to figures put out by the USGS, World Gold Council and Thomson Reuters GFMS,the U.S. had a total of 553 mt of gold supply compared to 671 mt of total demand… leaving a 118 mt shortfall for 2015:

Here is how I arrived at the figures shown in the chart above:

U.S. Gold Supply & Demand Figures 2015

Domestic Mine Supply = 213 mt

Gold Imports = 265 mt

Estimated Scrap = 75 mt

Total Supply = 553 mt

Gold Exports = 478 mt

Domestic Consumption = 193 mt

Total Demand = 671 mt

Total Deficit = 118 mt

American gold consumption increased from 179 mt in 2014 to 193 mt in 2015. The majority of the increase was due to higher Gold Bar & Coin investment. According to the World Gold Council Full Year 2015 Report, Americans purchased 132 mt of Gold Jewelry and 47 mt of Bar & Coin in 2014 versus 120 mt of Gold Jewelry and 73 mt of Bar & Coin investment in 2015.

What was interesting was the huge spike of U.S. Gold Bar & Coin demand during the third quarter of 2015. This was at the same time when the retail silver market suffered extensive shortages with upwards of two month wait times on certain products. Americans purchased 33 mt of Gold Bar & Coin in Q3 2015, 45% of the total for the year.

While some precious metal investors do not trust any of the data that comes from the World Gold Council or Thomson Reuters GFMS, I believe the figures for the U.S. are pretty accurate. If we look at Gold Eagle sales from July-Sept 2015, they totaled 397,000 oz while Gold Buffalo sales were 74,000 oz. Thus, total sales of these two official gold coins equaled 471,000 oz or 14.6 metric tons. The remaining 18.4 mt of Gold & Bar & Coin for Q3 2015 was in from other official coins and bars (such as Gold Maples) and private bars and rounds.

U.S. Exports Every Bit Of Its Gold Supply In 2015

Now, if we were to exclude U.S. gold scrap supply and domestic consumption, this would be the result:

U.S. domestic gold mine supply of 213 mt and imports of 265 mt (478 mt) is the same total of gold exports at 478 mt. Basically, the United States exported every bit of its mine supply and imports abroad.

U.S. Four-Year Gold Supply Deficit Equals One Hell Of A Lot Of Gold

If we add up total gold supply and subtract total demand since 2012, the United States suffered one hell of a deficit:

As we can see from the chart above, the U.S. experienced annual gold supply deficits since 2012. In 2011, the U.S. actually enjoyed a 215 mt surplus. What was interesting is that during the years when the price of gold surged (2009-2011), the U.S. reported more annual surplus. However, since the price of gold peaked (2011), it has been one annual deficit after another. I believe this is due to a significant “Trend Change” by the Eastern countries to acquire as much gold as they can get.

If we add up the annual gold supply deficits from 2012 to 2015, it totals 568 mt, or a massive 18.3 million oz (Moz). To give you an idea of how much gold that is, it equals all the Gold Eagles sold by the U.S. Mint from 1988-2015, 18.3 Moz:

So, in just the past four years, the total U.S. gold supply deficit equals all the U.S. Gold Eagle sales for the past 28 years. That’s a one hell of a lot of gold. It amounts to a $22 billion gold supply deficit, based on a $1,200 current market price multiplied by 18.3 Moz.

I will be writing more articles on the U.S. and Global gold supply-demand forces. However, the basic takeaway is this… physical gold continues to be drained from the WEST and shipped to the EAST. As we can see from the data in this article, the U.S. continues to export all of its domestic mine supply and imports abroad, while using its scrap supply for consumption purposes.

Which means, the present American Gold Ownership Strategy is to EXPORT IT ALL, JUST LET US KEEP THE SCRAPS.



Please email with any questions about this article or precious metals HERE




2012-2015 U.S. Gold Supply Deficit: A LOT

Posted with permission and written by Steve St. Angelo, SRSrocco Report (CLICK FOR ORIGINAL)







First published here: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-02-22/2012-2015-us-gold-supply-deficit-lot